**Seasonality**

**Best performers:** CAD, NZD 
**Weakest performers:** JPY, USD

The seasonal picture this week carries some interesting nuances beneath the surface. NZD stands out as perhaps the cleanest story — not only is it among the stronger seasonal performers this week, but price is actively following that bias. With the RBNZ decision due tomorrow, the fundamental and seasonal backdrops are pointing in the same direction, making NZD one of the more compelling currencies to watch.

JPY sits at the other end of the spectrum. As a seasonal underperformer, price is already reflecting that weakness — the seasonal and macro narratives are aligned, which at least offers consistency even if it doesn't immediately present a tradeable edge on its own.

CAD and USD are both early in their seasonal stories. Neither has fully caught up with its expected bias yet, but the direction remains valid. Sometimes the market takes time to reflect what the calendar is suggesting, and patience here may be rewarded as the week progresses.

The most interesting signal may be coming from GBP. While not a headline performer this week, sterling is already strengthening against the dollar — and that price action could be an early warning that the USD is beginning to follow its seasonal weakness more broadly. When one major pair leads, others often follow. GBPUSD may be the canary in the coal mine for dollar weakness across the board.