📊 **Trade Bias**

The U.S. narrative is building momentum mid-week. ISM Manufacturing beat earlier in the week was no one off — today's Non-Manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected and Nonfarm Employment added further weight, growing from 105 to 122. The picture emerging is one of an economy outperforming expectations across multiple data points. 

As a net oil seller, the U.S. is also better insulated from the geopolitical backdrop than most, and the market is beginning to reflect that confidence in the dollar.
The contrast with the rest of the world was stark today. Eurozone, UK and Australian PMIs all fell below the 50 growth line simultaneously — a broad signal of softening momentum outside the U.S. that only serves to reinforce dollar strength by comparison.

The other major development is the JPY. Governor Ueda's commitment to raising interest rates shifted sentiment meaningfully, with the 10 year JGB yield jumping from 2.57% to 2.65%. The yen, which has been the week's whipping boy, is showing signs of life. CHFJPY is the obvious pair to watch on the short side as two narratives collide — a strengthening JPY against a CHF that has had a strong fundamental week but may now face headwinds.

GBPJPY longs, flagged at the start of the week and validated through Tuesday, now look to have run their course. Yesterday's caution about taking stock before a new entry proved timely — the JPY shift changes the complexion of that trade and stepping aside was the right call.